In the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s recently published annual letter, Bill Gates busts some myths about poverty – that poverty is unsolvable and that foreign aid is pointless.
“The belief that the world can’t solve extreme poverty and disease isn’t just mistaken. It is harmful,” Gates said in the letter.
Gates highlights three myths about poverty – that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, that foreign aid is a waste of money, and that saving people’s lives causes overpopulation. He argues that believing these myths only hampers development.
“We hear these myths raised at international conferences and at social gatherings,” Gates said. “We get asked about them by politicians, reporters, students, and CEOs. All three reflect a dim view of the future, one that says the world isn’t improving but staying poor and sick, and getting overcrowded.
“We’re going to make the opposite case, that the world is getting better, and that in two decades it will be better still.”
No poor countries by 2035
Using today’s World Bank classification of low-income countries, and adjusting for inflation, Gates also predicted that there will be almost no poor countries by 2035.
“Poor countries are not doomed to stay poor. Some of the so-called developing nations have already developed.
“I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world.”
And how will this happen? “Countries will learn from their most productive neighbours and benefit from innovations like new vaccines, better seeds, and the digital revolution. Their labour forces, buoyed by expanded education, will attract new investments,” Gates said.
Gates uses this graph to argue the fact that countries that were once considered poor haven’t stayed poor. For that reason, he believes poor countries today don’t have to stay poor. However, he does admit there could be some exceptions, such as North Korea being held back by politics, and African land-locked countries being held back by their geographical limitations.
Gates also admits that while countries will no longer be poor, there will still be poor people living within countries, with inequality still being a problem.
“But most of them will live in countries that are self-sufficient,” he said. “Every nation in South America, Asia, and Central America (with the possible exception of Haiti), and most in coastal Africa, will have joined the ranks of today’s middle- income nations.
“More than 70% of countries will have a higher per-person income than China does today. Nearly 90% will have a higher income than India does today.”
Busting Myths
Myth 1: Poor are doomed to stay poor
Gates points to examples such as China, India, Brazil and Botswana – countries that were once considered poor but now have growing economies.
Myth 2: Foreign aid is wasteful
“Health aid is a phenomenal investment,” Gates said. “When I look at how many fewer children are dying than 30 years ago, and how many people are living longer and healthier lives, I get quite optimistic about the future.”
In an open letter, Gates also pointed to the fact that just 1% (US$30 billion per year) of the US budget goes to foreign aid. Of that, about $11 billion is spent on health, and $19 billion goes to things like building schools, roads and irrigation systems.
Gates works out that to be around $30 of each American’s annual taxes. That $30 helps to raise healthier children in poorer countries, who in turn, grow up, go to school, go to work, and help to make their countries more self-sufficient.
Myth 3: Saving lives causes overpopulation
In the letter, Melinda Gates points to countries such as Brazil, where child mortality and birth rates have declined. She argues that where more children survive, parents have smaller families.
“The planet does not thrive when the sickest are allowed to die off, but rather when they are able to improve their lives,” she said. “Human beings are not machines. We don’t reproduce mindlessly. We make decisions based on the circumstances we face.”
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